Managing Project Time and Cost Uncertainty 🧠

Welcome to Decision Super Hero, the authority in project risk analysis. We deliver accurate simulated risk-based cost estimates, schedules, and project financials that keep your projects on target and within budget. With extensive experience in industries like mining, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and highway mega projects, we are the experts you can rely on to manage project risks with confidence.

From capital allocation to strategic planning under uncertainty, we equip your team to make smarter, faster decisions. Grounded in the insights from our latest book, this is a high-level overview of our proven decision support methodology.

Project Risk is Everywhere! Together we can beat the odds

Initial cost and schedule estimates for major have frequently been overly optimistic, a reality underscored by the USAF Academy Risk Analysis Study Team. The Chaos Report further reveals that 70 to 80% of projects fail to meet their initial budget and schedule constraints. However, we are here to change that narrative.

Our planning and risk analysis services are designed to ensure your project is delivered on time and within budget. With our risk-based project planning and estimating approaches, rooted in industry best practices, you can confidently set accurate budget and scheduling estimates from the start, establishing your project's credibility and your team's effectiveness right from day one.

Integrated Project Risk Process

Step 1: Budgeting and Cost Estimation using Simulation

Engage with Subject Matter Experts and Estimators to define ranges around key costs and quantities.
Build and validate cost estimate simulation models
Sensitivity analysis to identify key project costs, quantities and other risk variables that drive uncertainty or variability in your estimate.
Incorporate risk registries into the cost estimate to derive Pre and Post-Mitigation Scenarios and establish what is the optimal budget to mitigate risk.
Run multiple simulations and scenarios to get a 360 degree view of potential project cost scenarios.
Prepare comprehensive reports for management that explains in clear terms the risks and the probability of achieving the project's budget objectives.

Step 3: Detailed financial analysis using Monte-Carlo Simulation

Return on Investment
Time series forecasting of project costs and benefits
Net Present Value & Internal Rate of Return
Total Cost of Ownership
Contribution to quantifiable business objectives.

Step 2: Scheduling and Resource Allocation using Schedule Simulation

Quantify the effects of critical tasks on delivery dates
Identify resource constraints
Build, Validate and Simulate project schedules
Identify key people, resources, vendors or other variables that drive your delivery date
Optimize the project's resource allocations to meet budget or scheduling constraints
Optimize scheduling based on the availability critical resources and key business objectives
Run multiple simulations and scenarios to get a 360 degree view of potential project delivery/executing scenarios.
Prepare comprehensive reports for management that explains in clear terms the risks and the probability of achieving the project's delivery dates.

Step 4: Scheduling and Resource Allocation using Schedule Simulation

Prepare reports and presentations to communicate key facts to project stakeholders
Develop risk mitigation strategies with project partners and suppliers
Recommendations on project policies, procedures and management parameters
Organizational Change + Risk Management strategy recommendations